Thursday, March 24, 2011

Dear Everyone,

Please stop thinking of the US action in Libya (as part of a UN no-fly zone) is part of a mission to oust Gaddafi. This action is totally inadequate to accomplishing that goal. Furthermore, if that goal is accomplished, the Muslim Brotherhood would be the largest organized faction within the country, and well placed to run it. Their taking over is not in line with US interests, or with UN interests (provided they do intend to destroy the West and institute Sharia Law, I haven't personally researched that but find the claim likely), so even if air strikes oust Gaddafi, we don't necessarily win.

So, what is our actual goal? Level the playing field. Gaddafi has an elite army of ~10,000 men, well equipped with armor, which should be sufficient to crush the rebellion and purge any significant civilian resistance. If it can hit hard, fast, and in the right place. If it can't, the disorganized but popular rebellion has a chance. They'll unify into something capable of forming a government (big hurdle), form an effective military force, and equip that force. The goal of the UN no-fly zone can only be to buy the rebels time. It can do nothing more.

Therefore, the fight is not between the US and Gaddafi for the advancement of Western or US interests. The fight is between Gaddafi and the Libyan people. The aircraft of this no-fly zone are referees in the fight, saying “no tanks, no hitting below the belt, no mass murder of civilians, no spitting, no hair-pulling, but small arms fire exchanges are allowed, and you can name call all you want.” Buying time for the rebellion also improves the odds that some popular representatives will appear among the groups other than the Muslim Brotherhood, that more parties will form, and at my highest hopes there will be elections to create and claim to be a legitimate government seated in Benghazi.

Thank you

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